ELDR Focus Year

German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has elected a new government. Not yet, some might say, but let’s take a closer look:

Germany’s largest federal state by inhabitants and economical power has been ruled by Social Democrats (SPD) for some decades, later assisted by the Greens and since 2005 ruled by a coalition of Conservatives (CDU) and Liberals (FDP). There were some good reasons in 2005 to change to this coalition, as NRW’s economical power in absolute numbers did not reflect its welfare anymore. On the contrary, welfare was decreasing as leftwing political forces preferred to go on subsidizing the large but ineffective industry of coal mining. These days, importing anthracite from Australia (sic!) to keep the numberous powerplants in NRW running is less expensive than using „homegrown“ coal. Still, the impact of these non-sustainable subsidies (this might be a pleonasm) can be seen today, when looking at gross domestic product or unemployment rate: the first only a bit above, the second even above German average. But speaking in absolute terms of economical power NRW would be the 6th most powerful country within the European Union – so, decisions in NRW do affect more than NRW itself.

But the political importance of the latest elections in May 2010 may be even higher then the economical implications. Representing about 22% of the German population, NRW’s 6 representatives in German Bundesrat ensure the majority for important decisions taken by the conservative-liberal coalition in Berlin. Any change in NRW’s government will lead to even more difficult discussions between Berlin and the federal states. The time is more than unfavourable: Germany’s national government is on the point to introduce a major tax decrease or at least a tax simplification reform, all put on the agenda by Liberals.

Now speaking about the actual result of this election: it does not put many things clear but one thing: the coalition of Conservatives and Liberals has lost their majority, mainly because of a 10% loss in votes on Conservative’s side. Reasons can be found in an overall discontent with the national government, rather than with the federal situation. Secondly, it is the first time for the left-wing populist party „DIE LINKE“ to enter this federal parliament – by taking 11 seats (FDP has 13). Because of a notably gain of seats by the Greens (from 12 to 23) and a stand-off between CDU and SPD (67 seats each, with a marginal lead by CDU in votes) talks are remaining very difficult over the last days. Though we cannot be sure about the outcome of these talks, there do remain only two possibilities to form the new government: a grand coalition of Conservatives and Social Democrats  or a left-wing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Left-wing populists. Liberals did favour to continue the coalition with Conservatives, while ruling out any talks with parties who fancy a left-wing coalition with populists from DIE LINKE. In the end, and after five days of argy-bargy, Social Democrats and Greens invited Liberals and left-wing populists on the same day, by then effectively putting an end to any talks with Liberals and a coalition with Liberal participation, as Liberal party speakers stated subsequently.

However, observers now expect long ongoing talks for the left-wing or a grand coalition – these talks might even last until summer break in August. Until then, Liberal ministers Andreas Pinkwart and Ingo Wolf remain in office.


Article by Michael Postel (postel@julis.de)